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Noticing the Unnoticed: Fortuitous Creation and the Next Big App

Technology is still largely uncharted territory. This is in part because hardware platforms, networks, and sensors keep evolving and adding functionality. It is also because the field is embraced by a fresh and creative breed of engineers and creative people who keep tinkering with evolving technologies. As a result, we have "fortuitous" creations or inventions that are underappreciated, lesser known, and under valued. Therein lies a unique opportunity for the savvy user (or tech investor) to find hidden and underappreciated gems. Embracing this perspective, we can re-program our thinking to look beyond the current top performers and "must haves" for the underappreciated, undiscovered, and lesser-knowns.

This phenomenon (if we can call it that) is also observable in mobile apps, which have made it easier for smaller pieces of software to enter the market, thereby reducing barriers for smart, creative, and savvy developers to disseminate and test out solutions. While we still have established players that systematically research, develop, and publish software and apps, we also have many a smart software developers, inventors, and creatives putting out their own work. Apps are sometimes born out of an academic project, a hobby, or some other fortuitous circumstance. These creations don't go through traditional marketing and economic vetting processes. But that doesn't mean they don't bring actual value or solve a widespread or important problem. It just means they haven't been valued and fully commercialized.

For the busy end-user, it's easy to fall back on "must-have," "top ten," and "most-downloaded" lists, to gear-up new devices with applications. But if you solely use that approach to discover and use software and apps, we challenge you to re-set your thinking. Be inspired to find the lesser-known, emerging, and often fortuitous creations that could make tomorrow's top list. We're not suggesting foregoing the tried and true and widely-adopted apps (e.g. Spotify or Skype), but we're challenging you to look for similar apps with less familiar icons. A certain degree of patience is required for this approach because it entails significant trial and error. Some apps will be error-prone from the get-go, while others may have unworkable bugs that render them unusable on a regular basis. Still others may have a bad user experience or interface that discourages use. But for every ten that may be bad, there could be that one application that's the proto-application that will be on the future top ten list. Finding these gems can be fun if you're a savvy user and highly valuable from the perspective of an investor.

Promising applications do often have tell-tale signs and looking for these could help zero in on the apps with high potential. The following indicators can help hone in on promising new entrants:

The Visuals.The eyes are the windows to the soul and what the eyes are to people, icons are to apps. Balanced colors, shapes, and creative designs that capture attention and hold some symbolism can indicate good things. They may suggest a developer who is serious, creative, and who has invested sufficient time or resources toward the application. Similarly, screenshots can provide a preview of the logic, layout, and presentation of the application. An application that has a good lay out, is accessible, and is organized, suggests that the underlying concept and code also has comparable promise.

Permissions and Ads. Once you understand the premise of the application, you'll understand the sensors and types of meta-data it likely needs to operate (e.g., location data). And when you make the leap and click that "Install" button, you get one more chance to evaluate it (at least on Android devices). Look critically at the set of permissions it requests. Then, ask yourself, does it make sense to grant such permission? While there's no shame in discrete advertising for small developers, a kitchen sink approach to permissions likely means one of two things: At best, it suggests a sloppy developer who didn't bother to tailor or think through what they need access to. At worst, it suggests an unscrupulous developer or company that wants to gobble up data that is not relevant to functionality. It is best to steer clear of such applications.

Users and Network Effects. Obviously, if an application has reached a million or more users (or even hundreds of thousands) the app may already be on its way to a top list. It has also likely been noticed not only by those users but by the original developer and investors, who will seek to monetize or leverage it to extract some of that value. Thus, the app will probably have a fee, or cost a lot in terms of data and permissions. But there seems to be a sweet-spot where you'll know the app has been vetted thoroughly but it is still lesser known: perhaps at ten or twenty thousand users. That golden middle may be the perfect metric indicative of a gem.

Version History and Release Notes. Even if an app has quietly trotted along with growing but not blockbuster adoption, its version history and release notes can still show that it has potential. Is it in beta? How many iterations has it experienced? What's the developer fixing and how often? Are they listening to the users? These are all signs of a user-centric, dedicated, and methodical developer who's likely going to continue improving the application.

So, you've found an app. It looks visually appealing, is user friendly, only asks for what it needs, has been vetted by a solid number of users, and is hitting version two with a steady stream of updates. Congratulations! You've got yourself a solid contender for a hidden gem app. If you're a savvy user, it would be smart to try out the app even if it hasn't made it to one of LayTech's lists or other lists. Similarly, if you're a tech investor, it may make sense to reach out to the developer and see if they'd like to further grow the seedling that their creativity has given birth to. In either scenario, the user or investor is tapping into unnoticed, true value: the solution to a valuable problem or challenge (be it for entertainment or productivity) that hasn't been fully monetized or emulated. Having discovered a hidden gem app, you stand to gain from unrealized (unmonetized) value and get cool, fresh, and useful features or solutions that the bigger players have not yet addressed. Moreover, by embracing this approach, you've embedded yourself at arguably the most excited phase of the lifecycle of "fortuitous inventions" and noticed the unnoticed top app of the future. You'll gain more appreciation for its useful features and be proud of the fact that you were able to discover it. And, if you've invested, go on and enjoy the fruits of your collective labor.

Whether using this approach or not, you may have already stumbled upon or discovered an incredibly useful application that few others are aware of. If you'd like to share, please comment. In the next post, we can select a few that we think have high potential and provide commentary on our experience with it.



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